Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector

This 2021 International Energy Agency (IEA) report reflects discussions from the IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit, where energy and climate leaders highlighted the global momentum behind clean energy transitions. The report maps out a normative scenario of how the global energy sector can reach net zero by 2050, based on the following principles: 

• Uptake of options is dictated by costs, technology maturity, policy preferences and market / country conditions; 
• All countries cooperate to achieving net-zero globally; 
• An orderly transition ensues, with energy security ensured, limited stranding of assets, and avoided volatility in markets. 

The report sets out clear milestones to reach net zero emissions (the NZE Scenario).  

Under the report’s NZE Scenario, oil demand falls from around 90 million barrels per day in 2020 to 24 million barrels per day in 2050, while natural gas demand falls from 3900 billion cubic metres to around 1700 billion cubic metres. Based on these reductions, the IEA concludes that no new fossil fuel exploration is required in the NZE Scenario as no new oil and natural gas fields are required beyond those that have already been approved for development. Accordingly, it considers that minimizing emissions from core oil and gas operations should be a first‐order priority for all oil and gas companies. The NZE Scenario does see continued investment in existing oil and gas fields in order to maintain production. Key milestones in relation to oil include: no new oil or gas exploration licences issued from 2021; no new oil or gas fields approved for development from 2021; and phase-out of all unabated oil power plants by 2040. Gas demand levels are maintained over the next decade, buoyed by gas generation only peaking in 2030, before a strong decline to 2050. Remaining gas use in 2050 is primarily used for hydrogen production, and abated using CCUS technology. 

In relation to coal, the report concludes that no new coal mines or mine extensions are needed under the NZE Scenario. Unabated coal demand declines by 98% to just less than 1% of total energy use in 2050. Key milestones in relation to coal are: no new coal mines, mine extensions or unabated coal plants approved for development from 2021; phase out of unabated coal power plants in advanced economies by 2030; and phase-out of all unabated coal power plants by 2040. 

The report provides a technical basis to guide decision-making on fossil fuel infrastructure projects to meet often codified net zero goals. Specifically, it provides the technical basis to reject new proposals for oil, gas and coal infrastructure (and exploration activities) worldwide. It also provides a series of deadlines that can be used to inform action in the lead up to 2050, to ensure adequate action is taken now until 2050.