The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies

This article develops a spatial analysis, using estimates and locations of conventional oil resources and socio-environmental criteria, such as biodiversity priorities and urban areas, to map the areas of the globe that should be kept off-limits to oil extraction to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. These ‘exclusion zones’ where extraction must not happen include biodiversity hotspots, protected areas, urban zones, and territories of Indigenous Peoples.  

To achieve the 1.5°C target, 97% of coal, 81% of conventional gas, and 71% of conventional oil must remain unburned (derived from Welsby et al. 2021). The article identifies 609 gigabarrels (Gbbl) of conventional oil resources in biodiversity hotspots, protected areas, urban zones, and Indigenous Peoples' territories. More specifically, biodiversity hotspots and protected areas account for areas with 17.5% of global oil resources, while urban areas and indigenous territories account for 6.5%. Overall, these exclusion zones overlap with 26.8% of global conventional oil resources. Given the need to keep 1524 Gbbl of oil unextracted under a 1.5 °C target, the paper argues that 609 Gbbl is well within this level, and therefore argues for prioritizing these socio-environmentally sensitive areas for conservation. Note that the 1524 Gbbl unextractable estimate is based on subtracting the amount of oil that can be burned (753 Gbbl) from the total global conventional reserves (2276 Gbbl), as estimated by Welsby et al. (2021). 

This atlas outlines a framework for identifying and prioritizing unextractable conventional oil resources, highlighting areas where fossil fuel extraction should be avoided to meet climate targets and enhance socio-environmental benefits. The article's findings can support the development of supply-side climate policies targeting the exclusion zones identified by the paper.