An Equitable Phase Out of Fossil Fuel Extraction

This report is produced by the Civil Society Equity Review. It proposes an equitable framework for phasing out fossil fuel extraction, with differentiated country phase-out timeframes. The key argument is that in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees and also achieve an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, no new fossil fuel extraction infrastructure can be built. Wealthier countries whose economies are less dependent on fossil fuel extraction, especially the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and Germany, must phase out all fossil fuel extraction by 2031 at the latest. These countries should also provide substantial financial support to poorer countries whose economies are dependent on fossil fuel extraction for revenues and employment.  

The report's equity framework focuses on the principles of a state's capacity, responsibility, and dependence. A country's capacity refer to its ability to address the global climate problem, and is measured by financial resources above and beyond what is needed to sustain a modest but decent standard of living. Responsibility, or historical responsibility, refers a country’s overall contribution to the climate problem, based on cumulative emissions. Dependence refers to the extent to which a society is entwined with the fossil fuel economy. As a country that is more dependent on fossil fuel will incur greater social costs from a rapid transition, an equitable phaseout framework must take into consideration all three elements when considering a particular country's path to phasing out fossil fuels.  

While all countries must phase out fossil fuel extraction as quickly as possible, it is only politically feasible if it is widely perceived as fair. Countries such as Iraq and Syria are highly dependent on oil and gas for employment, revenue, and most of its economic activities, so they will need more time for a green transition. On the other hand, countries that have historically produced more cumulative emissions and are also more capable of implementing fossil fuel phaseouts should end fossil fuel extraction at a much earlier date. These are countries—namely the US, UK, Norway, Australia and Canada—are also much less economically dependent on fossil fuels, and therefore ought to phase out by the early 2030s. 

Another key implication of the research is that, on its own, having a differentiated timeframe will not be enough to make sure the transition is fair. International financial support is needed for many countries to end fossil fuel extraction, especially poorer countries whose economies are intertwined with the fossil fuel industry. And richer countries need to provide that support. 

The report can be used to support arguments for a faster fossil fuel phase out in countries with high capacity and responsibility for historic emissions —most notably the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and Norway—and for those countries to provide support for the transition in low income, fossil-fuel dependent countries. The report shows the urgent need to stop all new extraction projects, and that lower income countries need international financial support to transition to a green economy.