No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need

This Science article establishes the case for a “no new fossil” norm, i.e. a norm that no new fossil fuel projects (encompassing both fossil fuel production and fossil-fuel power generation plants) should be permitted.  

The first part of the article shows that existing oil and gas production projects and coal- and gas-fired power generation infrastructure is sufficient to meet fossil fuel demand in scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C. The article assesses a range of 1.5°C scenarios compiled for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, and compares them with data on existing fossil fuel production capacity. This includes oil and gas extraction projects and the largest fossil fuel consuming sectors, i.e. coal and gas power generation. The results show that fields already in production or under development will meet demand for oil and gas under all scenarios considered.   

Regarding coal plants, the paper shows there is far too much capacity relative to 1.5°C-consistent capacity, meaning adding new coal plants is unnecessary to meet electricity demand in the 1.5°C scenarios. Existing and under-construction gas plants are also sufficient to meet energy demand under most scenarios. New gas plants cannot be justified within the analysed 1.5°C scenario set, especially if carbon dioxide removal technologies do not materialise or if the coal power phaseout is not as ambitious as assumed in these scenarios.  

The analysis provides additional evidence in support of the International Energy Agency’s conclusion from its Net Zero Emissions scenario (first published in 2021 and updated in 2023) that no new fossil fuel production is needed to meet demand in that scenario. This paper (Green et al.) reaches essentially the same conclusion using a different set of scenarios, and extends the analysis to include not only fossil fuel (oil and gas) production but also coal- and gas-fired power stations. 

The second part of the paper looks at the political economy of stopping new projects, compared with phasing out existing projects early. In theory, the 1.5°C limit could be maintained under the analysed scenarios despite new fossil fuel projects coming online, if this new production were counterbalanced by existing production being phased out more quickly than its anticipated economic life. However, preventing new projects is much more feasible—economically, politically and legally—than shutting down existing ones.  

Based on the first two parts of the paper, the article then arrives at the normative conclusion that no more fossil fuel projects should be allowed. It calls for efforts to diffuse and institutionalise a social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects; a “No New Fossil” norm. Specifically, the authors argue that this norm should be built through climate policies that ban or otherwise stop new fossil fuel projects, and through advocacy by civil society, governments and international organisations for states to impose such restrictions. Drawing parallels to the abolition of the slave trade and the cessation of nuclear weapon tests, the article highlights how civil society organisations can generate social-moral norm shifts by exposing the harms caused by such practices and mobilising elite support and mass movements to pressure governments. The article explains how the norm could be built through coordinated domestic actions by leading states, and institutionalised internationally through ‘club’ arrangements and treaty-based cooperation, enabling countries to address issues of equity and just transition associated with a widespread ban on new fossil fuel projects. 

The article concludes by recognising that, ultimately, many existing fossil fuel projects will need to be phased out early in order to meet global climate goals. But the authors explain why it makes sense to build international cooperation around a more feasible goal of stopping new projects, since this would help to create the economic and political conditions in which phasing out existing fossil fuel projects before the end of their economic life could become more feasible than it typically is today.