Amplifying “Keep It in the Ground” First-Movers: Toward a Comparative Framework

The paper stakes stock of a wave of policies to keep fossil fuels in the ground (‘KIIG’), noting that the first-mover countries implementing these policies are perpetuating a “normative shift” that may trigger widespread adoption worldwide.  

The paper seeks to explain the adoption of KIIG policies and recognise their role in contributing to the “social tipping point” (see our category page on Feedback Effects) that creates a domino effect towards decarbonisation. It outlines a range of advantages KIIG policies provide with respect to decarbonisation such as diverting financial flows away from fossil fuels and boosting public awareness of the issue. It canvasses the history of KIIG policies, including developments in the literature supportive of supply side policies such as KIIG.  

The paper outlines barriers to KIIG policy, importantly noting the contribution fossil fuel infrastructure plays in entrenching fossil fuel activity, such as extraction facilities and pipelines. It notes that by supporting such infrastructure, governments are indicating their commitment to long-term fossil fuel consumption. This point provides support for the idea that proposals for all infrastructure associated with fossil fuel activity, even if not directly emitting activities, should be rejected as it interferes with KIIG policies.  

The paper suggests numerous conditions which support a roadmap to KIIG policies. Rooting KIIG policies on focused, localised campaigns on fossil fuel projects provides an important starting point which can be used to later scale up opposition. It proposes that both horizontal and vertical support networks are important for KIIG policies, horizontal referring to integration across traditional silos, and vertical meaning engagement across national and international actors that are external and otherwise distant allies. Seizing leverage points, having well-placed norm entrepreneurs that propagate anti-fossil fuel norms and ensuring core messages are resonant are all important features that lay the foundations for KIIG policies.  

The paper talks of early signs that the UNFCCC Secretariat may provide support for state-led KIIG policies, bringing KIIG to the international realm. It notes the important symbolic power such policies provide, potentially triggering a “cascade” of similar action across other states. This reinforces the normative power of rejecting fossil fuel extraction and related infrastructure proposals in bringing about similar action worldwide. It can be used to negate an argument that extraction if not done at the location of the application will necessarily occur elsewhere, as it shows that other nations may follow suit after KIIG policies are adopted. Its recognition of international traction on KIIG further supports this argument.