COP26 and the dynamics of anti-fossil fuel norms

This paper analyses developments from the Glasgow Climate Conference in November 2021 (COP26) under the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC) that institutionalised norms against the production and extraction of fossil fuels (i.e. anti-fossil fuel norms (‘AFFN’)). 

The paper introduces the idea of global moral norms and discusses the value of norm theory in understanding power dynamics, and the “ideational, discursive and symbolic dimensions” of processes. Based on literature, it describes how a small number of norm adopters advocate strongly for those norms, resulting in the norm being enshrined in an international legal text. Then, norms exert social influence on others, triggering behavioural changes. Successful norms will be both institutionalised and implemented. This article demonstrates how COP26 has institutionalised AFFNs. 

Specifically, the paper notes how COP26 was ground-breaking in its specific reference to phasing down unabated coal power and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, marking the first time a COP decision has addressed the role of reducing fossil fuels in climate mitigation. These COP decisions form a “baseline” for future decisions, institutionalising AFFNs now in a way that is likely to be strengthened in the future. Language that references principles of equity such as “just transition” also implies a move away from the reliance of economies on coal. The paper outlines several efforts on the “side-lines” of COP26 which further targeted fossil fuel production/supply, reinforcing AFFNs e.g. controversy around new fossil fuel developments in the UK and the tarnishing of the fossil fuel industry by civil society and high-profile reports/studies. 

A significant development in relation to finance was the Statement on International Public Support of the Clean Energy Transition, committing signatories to end support for unabated fossil fuels, except in limited circumstances. The paper suggests this reflects the emergence of another AFFN on fossil fuel finance. 

Ultimately, COP26 developments show that existing AFFNs (e.g. coal and fossil fuel subsidies) were being institutionalised and new AFFNS (e.g. on finance and other fossil fuels) were being created. Interestingly, the debates over fossil fuels at COP26 reveal the extent of civil society and industry contestation around the fossil fuel industry’s “social license” to operate.  

The paper provides evidence of the institutionalisation of AFFNs and their increasing influence over countries’ efforts to mitigate climate change.