What Drives Norm Success? Evidence from Anti–Fossil Fuel Campaigns

The paper advocates for using “problem linkages” to strike the balance between norm campaigns and more consequentialist frameworks to achieve climate action. It does so by considering two case studies; fossil fuel subsidy reform (‘FFSR)’, and fossil fuel divestments (‘FFD’). The paper looks specifically at the evolution of these norms, arguing they have achieved institutional acceptance and implementation when proponents have been able to link environmental goals with economic (or other) goals.  

The paper outlines the concept of norms, looking at their success in terms of norm institutionalisation and norm implementation (i.e. discursive embracing of the norm in treaties/conventions/agreements etc. and behavioural change, respectively). It then advocates for the role of problem linkages in successfully institutionalising and implementing norms. Specifically, it notes problem linkages broaden the supportive coalition for action, capturing those who may not be motivated to achieve the relevant goal on climate grounds alone.  

In relation to FFSR the paper provides a short history, noting its limited environmental rationale in its early stages until the 1990s. It notes implementation has been moderately successful, but there is evidence that perceptions of the interests of policymakers have changed enough to make the norm more enduring. The paper finds that problem linkage widened the appeal of the norm and helped institutionalise it globally. 

In relation to FFD, the paper notes its lack of early success as a norm, until around 2015, where financial institutions began recognising climate-related financial risks. In this second period various divestment decisions reflected a mix of moral and financial concerns (i.e. problem linkages). 

This idea of problem linkages helps to argue that anti-fossil fuel norms are likely to grow and be widely adopted as many co-benefits or problem linkages to banning fossil fuels exist, which will help successful norm-creation (e.g. addressing air pollution, improving energy security, avoiding stranded assets). It also shows the importance of outlining these co-benefits in challenging projects, to provide multiple reasons/linkages/co-benefits to reject a proposal, above and beyond purely environmental concerns.